Fire Firebloom BurnTier 3
at National-SEA 2025
decks
3
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
11-17-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1289
· median 1347
· range 1135–1386
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1294
Q3 1463
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.0 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 53.5% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.5% | -14.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +21.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
